1 month ago
75
The Springboks prefer to begin big matches and tournaments as underdogs. These players tend to produce their best performances after they have been written off.
When the odds are in their favour, however, the Boks rarely live up to the hype. Success has bred complacency in some of the greatest South Africa teams over the years, and has cost them many important results.
The team that romped to a 16-point victory over the All Blacks in the opening match of the 2022 Rugby Championship went on to lose 35-23 to the same New Zealand side seven days later. The latter result cost the Boks the Freedom Cup title – which they haven’t won since 2009 – and ultimately the Rugby Championship trophy.
More recently, a white-hot performance against Ireland in Pretoria was followed by a lukewarm effort in the series decider in Durban. While that series was shared, Ireland viewed the outcome as a success while many in South Africa marked it as another missed opportunity.
Now that the 2024 Rugby Championship is upon us, the Boks’ season is on a knife edge.
Given the favourable schedule and the fact that the other three southern hemisphere nations are in a state of transition, the Boks are well placed to set the record straight and end a couple of trophy droughts.
Schedule a blessing for Boks
Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus. (Photo: Sydney Seshibedi / Gallo Images)
Rassie Erasmus’s charges will begin their campaign with back-to-back Tests in Australia (in Brisbane on 10 August and in Perth on 17 August) before returning to South Africa.
The Boks will host the All Blacks for two matches (at Ellis Park on 31 August and at Cape Town Stadium on 7 September), before tackling Argentina in a double-header (in Santiago on 21 September and in Nelspruit on 28 September).
In previous versions of the six-game tournament, the Boks played all three of their overseas fixtures in succession. The tournament structure changed in 2022, but the Boks still played Argentina in Buenos Aires after spending two weeks in Australia.
This time round, the Boks will return to South Africa after the double-header in Australia. They will play their toughest matches against the All Blacks on home soil. Thereafter, they will enjoy two weeks to prepare for a potentially tricky trip to Argentina.
To summarise, the Boks have never had a better Rugby Championship draw.
Not that Erasmus and company will leave anything to chance. Instead of travelling to Australia five or six days before the first match, the group arrived in Brisbane a full nine days before the tournament opener.
Many will view them as favourites to win the games in Australia, now that the Wallabies have dropped to ninth in the world rankings.
Young Springbok sensation Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu of South Africa during the 2024 Incoming Series match against Portugal in Bloemfontein on 20 July 2024. (Photo: Anton Geyser / Gallo Images)
The Boks will have no reason to be overconfident, though, given that they’ve won only four games in Australia since the dawn of the professional era. They haven’t won in Brisbane since 2013.
That record, rather than the quality of the current Wallabies side, should be used as motivation to succeed where so many other teams have failed.
Catching opponents at the right time
A weak Bok side suffered record losses over the course of the 2016 and 2017 seasons and dropped to seventh in the world rankings.
Erasmus was appointed in early 2018 and tasked with reviving the side, but it took a season or two to rebuild the South African structures and assemble a team capable of competing for major titles.
Fast forward to the present, where the tables have well and truly turned.
The Boks boast the most settled coach and player group in the Rugby Championship, whereas the All Blacks, Wallabies and Pumas have new coaches in Scott Robertson, Joe Schmidt and Felipe Contepomi, and are in a state of transition.
Schmidt orchestrated two monumental victories for Ireland over the Boks in 2016 and 2017. After the veteran coach joined the New Zealand ranks in July 2022, the All Blacks regained their edge.
There is a healthy respect in South African circles for what Schmidt can do – and the Bok coaches will expect the unexpected in the coming matches against Australia.
But as was the case with Erasmus’s Boks in 2018, Schmidt’s Wallabies will not transform overnight. This much was clear when they battled their way to a series of unconvincing wins against Wales and Georgia in the July Tests.
The Boks should be wary of the Schmidt factor and acknowledge the challenge of playing in Australia. At the same time, they should view this tour as an opportunity to beat a vulnerable side in transition, and begin their Rugby Championship campaign with a bang.
Boks will get stronger as tournament unfolds
Injuries have forced Erasmus’s hand, and the Boks are currently touring Australia without a few star players.
The Wallabies also have their injury problems, but don’t boast the depth or the structures to cope with big setbacks, at least not at this stage.
Malcolm Marx and Pieter-Steph du Toit are back in action after some injury concerns after the second Test against Ireland, while a group of injured players including Steven Kitshoff, Canan Moodie and Faf de Klerk should be available for the series against New Zealand. First choice No 8 Jasper Wiese will come into the selection frame after his suspension expires in two weeks.
By the time the first game against the All Blacks kicks off, the Boks will be close to full strength. They will be favourites to win that series in front of their home fans.
A best-case scenario sees the Boks winning all four matches against Australasian opposition, and going into the final leg of the tournament against Argentina with one hand on the Rugby Championship trophy.
If they drop a game or two along the way, they may have to play catch-up in the latter rounds.
For now, the Boks should be going all out to make a golden opportunity count. Success in Australia could set them up for a landmark result in the series against New Zealand, and that in turn could pave the way for a Rugby Championship title.
Many of the critics, of course, will be waiting for the Boks to drop one or two matches, and fall into a familiar pattern.
In that event, the Boks will surrender their No 1 ranking and provide further evidence for the argument that they struggle to perform whenever they’re saddled with the favourites tag.
Make no mistake, this a massive campaign in the context of the season. DM
